Endocrine Abstracts

Objective: To determine the predictive risk factors for the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) in patients with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) or impaired fasting glucose (IFG) during the 8.5 follow up.

Research design and methods: This is an 8-year prospective study in a randomly selected urban population including 2838 subjects aged ≥40 years living in Krakow. Seven hundred and six had IGT (387) or IFG (319) based on WHO criteria and 264 of them attended the follow-up assessment eight years later. Subjects underwent a physical examination including weight/height, waist circumference, biochemical examination including glucose, insulin in 0′, 120′ OGTT and questionnaire examination concerning CVD health history and family history of type 2 diabetes.

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes in examined population of 264 people with previously (1998–2000) found IGT or IFG was 17%. Diabetes type 2 was found in 22% of people with previously diagnosed IFG and in 13% of people with previously found IGT. Among people with diagnosed diabetes, 51% had newly diagnosed diabetes during the control study, in 49% participants diabetes was diagnosed before in the period between the baseline and control study. In the studied population, statistically significant predictive factors of the progression to type 2 diabetes were fasting glicemia (RR 3.27; P<0.001), fasting hiperinsulinemia (RR 2.1; P<0.05), insulin resistance measured as HOMA IR index (RR 1.99; P<0.05), WHR, (RR 1.67, P<0.01) and family history of type 2 diabetes (RR 2.21; P=0.01).

Conclusion: In the studied population, important predictive factors of the progression to type 2 diabetes were fasting glicemia, fasting hiperinsulinemia, insulin resistance measured as HOMA IR index, WHR, and family history of type 2 diabetes.